QBs and the 2018 Draft
Well, the NFL draft is just 12 days away and it is time to do my annual rounds of predictions for the draft and for the future of certain college players once they reach the NFL. Certainly got some right over the years (Tebow, Manziel, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker as busts; Jameis would do okay with solid numbers, but never be the leader who took his team deep into the playoffs, Mariotta would be at best an average QB and not starting anymore when 30), but missed on some too (I did think RG3 would be better, thought Cam would be outed as a one-trick pony by now). So, away we go:
For 2018, I am simply not sold on the "great" quarterback class this year. All the comparisons to 1983 are just pure absurdity to me, the media machine creating a frenzy where at best an eyebrow raise is warranted.
I must admit, I didn't watch as much NCAA football as usual in 2017. FSU being absolutely dreadful and the Dumbo Fisher fiasco made it so only UGA's success really made for must see TV. The atrocious play of many QBs, the same old boring Bama, Ohio State, Oklahoma wins over the usuals didn't make for great watching. When I did tune in to see Wyoming, hoping to see more of Josh Allen since he looked good his junior year, all I saw was a very talented athlete struggling to run an offense against some weak competition. His interviews were good, and he is VERY likable, but his play just reminded me of EJ Manuel and Jake Locker, he could move some, but he just didn't seem to have "command" of things.
USC and UCLA got pounded by decent teams a few times and the rest of the time they were on super late for my east coast self, so not much in person vibes from them.
That all said, I did see some studs and some guys I think could shine at the next level.
So, the quarterbacks are getting the chatter as usual, and some say 4 in the first 10 picks and 5 in the first round. I believe that will be a waste for 3 teams (at least) then. The biggest thing for most of them is what system the team that drafts them plans to run. For example, the Giants with Eli have been strictly a pocket passer team and even though Pat Shurmer is new blood, he isn't known for much read option or RPO type plays. That means Allen and Mayfield are bad fits there, and the Giants likely are passing on both. Either they will trade the pick or take Barkley or Chubb. My guess is trade, if they can stay in top 8 or so. If they go QB, I think Rosen is the only one they MIGHT draft, and they can probably get him a bit later.
Cleveland is taking (another) QB, and the conventional wisdom is Darnoud. Being in Cleveland his chances for success are going to drop. They are improving, but losing Joe Thomas will be big to the offense, and they are the Browns. I just don't see Darnoud lighting it up in the NFL. I didn't really see him much, but just being in a Browns uniform means the odds are long.
Allen, while by all appearances a great kid, struggled against real college defenses this year, had a really low completion percentage, and had a lot of turnovers. He seemed slow to pick up blitz reads, some of which would have been easy for anyone, and I just never saw him light it up. Cannon arm, but is it all there between the ears and can he put it all together now? Maybe...maybe...if he gets a QB whisperer for a coach. Miami is the only team who could be looking QB where I think Allen would have a chance. Arians is gone for Arizona or I might have said maybe there too.
Josh Rosen has a history of injuries and under performing his gifts. I can see him maybe staying healthy and putting up some good numbers, but I don't see him taking a team to the promised land of the Super Bowl. He certainly didn't get any kudos from his old coach, but then again Jim Mora Jr is the kind of coach I think Josh Rosen was as a QB, always a bit disappointing and not going to WOW anyone.
Baker Mayfield is the real Jeckyl and Hyde of the QBs. The kid walked on at Texas Tech, and won the job as a freshman. He got hurt early in the year, gutted out some more games, but split the job with Davis Webb and after one year in Lubbock, he still hadn't gotten his scholarship (so it is said) and he felt slighted so he decided to say a big "F You" to Tech and he walked on at Oklahoma. He had to sit for a year as a transfer, and let Trevor Knight finish his last year, and then Mayfield started for 3 years. His height and sometimes volatile temper are issues, but he is so accurate in his throws, and he was able to make them with 6' 6" linemen at OU, so I think he will do okay in the NFL. It really comes down to the system again. If he went to New Orleans, I would say the sky is the limit, but he will likely end up on the Jets, Bills, or Broncos, and that may play more of a role in his long term success. I do think he will be the first 2018 QB to start for an NFL team. As much as I worry about his off the field stuff and his antics at times on it, I admit being impressed by more than a few of his games at Oklahoma. He will be my pick as the one who wins the Rookie of the Year award among the QBs.
Lastly, some think Lamar Jackson will be a first round pick too. It will be a HUGE mistake if some team does make that move. While an exciting runner and a pretty good RPO college QB, the accuracy isn't there, Louisville didn't really run a complex offense, or give Jackson command over the play calls or protection much, and I just think he thrived on his athleticism alone. If he moves to WR or RB, he might have a longer career, but he seems determined to be a QB (ala Tebow) and it will make him either unemployed by 2022, or moving to another position. He isn't anything like Deshaun Watson or Mariotta, so don't buy the hype unless you like throwing away money is my take.
The second best QB in this draft is probably Kyle Lauletta from Richmond. I didn't see him play this year, but the highlights show some ability and his numbers certainly won't scare teams away. His team did well and he seems to be getting good scouting reports in the run up to the draft, so I'll buy in. Falk and Rudolph are 2 other QBs people talk about but I think they are just system QBs like so many before them, pass.
As for other players I have thoughts on, I am going to predict Nick Chubb will have a better career than Sony Michel, but both will be solid pros after their time at UGA. Conventional wisdom is Michel has more pass catching and blocking saavy over Nick, but I think Nick did a great job on pass protection when he was asked to do it, and he will be a more dominant runner between the tackles as I see it. I think either would be great in Packers uniform, but if I get to pick, it is Nick.
Roquan Smith is going to shine for either the Colts, 49ers or the Raiders it would appear and he will be a beast wherever he goes.
I wish I could say Derwin James will light it up, but in 2017 he simply lacked any explosive speed or instinct like he had in 2015. Maybe he is still recovering from the knee injury, but he should have been better by now. I know FSU did a lousy job of utilizing his full talent this year, but I just think he may be slightly overrated as an All-Pro. Maybe a solid starter, and maybe someone transforms him ala Thomas Davis into a beast of a linebacker, but I just don't feel like he is a can't miss, but maybe more of a probably won't miss prospect.
FSU has no other major talent, just some decent role player defensive linemen who will all probably find jobs in the NFL (Nnadi, Christmas, Sweat), but not as big time starters.
Among the UGA prospects, I see Trenton Thompson being a surprisingly decent DT possibly, and Lorenzo Carter just never blew me away despite his amazing speed and size/weight ratios.
Of the other players I saw in 2017 who maybe will surprise the NFL, Gallup the WR from Colorado State looked good in the 2 games I saw, as did the TE Andrews from Oklahoma, TE Hurst from South Carolina, and the LB Griffin from UCF.
To try and forecast busts, I will list the QBs above, along with WR Ridley from Bama, McFadden from FSU, and any Gator drafted.
Alright best guess time:
CLE-Darnoud
NYG-Chubb
NYJ-Mayfield
CLE-Barkley
DEN trade to BUFF-Allen (Buff trades both 2018 1sts and another pick for this)
IND-R Smith
TB-James (in a reach, but I think if I were Bucs GM I would go Fitzpatrick)
CHIC-Davenport (Since I guess Nelson gone, they either pick Davenport or trade to AZ or MIA so they can get QB)
SF-Ward
Oak-T Edmunds
MIA-Rosen
edit: 04/16/2018 changed to NYG keeping pick, then the trades beginning with DEN.
If Cleveland goes Allen at #1, then this whole thing changes and maybe NYG go Darnoud and the frenzy for QB needy teams drives a trade with DEN or IND to get Rosen. My scenario leaves AZ in the cold to consider Rudolph or Jackson later in the draft.
Regardless, the NYG are the key. We'll know how insane a night it will be once they trade or pick. :-)
For 2018, I am simply not sold on the "great" quarterback class this year. All the comparisons to 1983 are just pure absurdity to me, the media machine creating a frenzy where at best an eyebrow raise is warranted.
I must admit, I didn't watch as much NCAA football as usual in 2017. FSU being absolutely dreadful and the Dumbo Fisher fiasco made it so only UGA's success really made for must see TV. The atrocious play of many QBs, the same old boring Bama, Ohio State, Oklahoma wins over the usuals didn't make for great watching. When I did tune in to see Wyoming, hoping to see more of Josh Allen since he looked good his junior year, all I saw was a very talented athlete struggling to run an offense against some weak competition. His interviews were good, and he is VERY likable, but his play just reminded me of EJ Manuel and Jake Locker, he could move some, but he just didn't seem to have "command" of things.
USC and UCLA got pounded by decent teams a few times and the rest of the time they were on super late for my east coast self, so not much in person vibes from them.
That all said, I did see some studs and some guys I think could shine at the next level.
So, the quarterbacks are getting the chatter as usual, and some say 4 in the first 10 picks and 5 in the first round. I believe that will be a waste for 3 teams (at least) then. The biggest thing for most of them is what system the team that drafts them plans to run. For example, the Giants with Eli have been strictly a pocket passer team and even though Pat Shurmer is new blood, he isn't known for much read option or RPO type plays. That means Allen and Mayfield are bad fits there, and the Giants likely are passing on both. Either they will trade the pick or take Barkley or Chubb. My guess is trade, if they can stay in top 8 or so. If they go QB, I think Rosen is the only one they MIGHT draft, and they can probably get him a bit later.
Cleveland is taking (another) QB, and the conventional wisdom is Darnoud. Being in Cleveland his chances for success are going to drop. They are improving, but losing Joe Thomas will be big to the offense, and they are the Browns. I just don't see Darnoud lighting it up in the NFL. I didn't really see him much, but just being in a Browns uniform means the odds are long.
Allen, while by all appearances a great kid, struggled against real college defenses this year, had a really low completion percentage, and had a lot of turnovers. He seemed slow to pick up blitz reads, some of which would have been easy for anyone, and I just never saw him light it up. Cannon arm, but is it all there between the ears and can he put it all together now? Maybe...maybe...if he gets a QB whisperer for a coach. Miami is the only team who could be looking QB where I think Allen would have a chance. Arians is gone for Arizona or I might have said maybe there too.
Josh Rosen has a history of injuries and under performing his gifts. I can see him maybe staying healthy and putting up some good numbers, but I don't see him taking a team to the promised land of the Super Bowl. He certainly didn't get any kudos from his old coach, but then again Jim Mora Jr is the kind of coach I think Josh Rosen was as a QB, always a bit disappointing and not going to WOW anyone.
Baker Mayfield is the real Jeckyl and Hyde of the QBs. The kid walked on at Texas Tech, and won the job as a freshman. He got hurt early in the year, gutted out some more games, but split the job with Davis Webb and after one year in Lubbock, he still hadn't gotten his scholarship (so it is said) and he felt slighted so he decided to say a big "F You" to Tech and he walked on at Oklahoma. He had to sit for a year as a transfer, and let Trevor Knight finish his last year, and then Mayfield started for 3 years. His height and sometimes volatile temper are issues, but he is so accurate in his throws, and he was able to make them with 6' 6" linemen at OU, so I think he will do okay in the NFL. It really comes down to the system again. If he went to New Orleans, I would say the sky is the limit, but he will likely end up on the Jets, Bills, or Broncos, and that may play more of a role in his long term success. I do think he will be the first 2018 QB to start for an NFL team. As much as I worry about his off the field stuff and his antics at times on it, I admit being impressed by more than a few of his games at Oklahoma. He will be my pick as the one who wins the Rookie of the Year award among the QBs.
Lastly, some think Lamar Jackson will be a first round pick too. It will be a HUGE mistake if some team does make that move. While an exciting runner and a pretty good RPO college QB, the accuracy isn't there, Louisville didn't really run a complex offense, or give Jackson command over the play calls or protection much, and I just think he thrived on his athleticism alone. If he moves to WR or RB, he might have a longer career, but he seems determined to be a QB (ala Tebow) and it will make him either unemployed by 2022, or moving to another position. He isn't anything like Deshaun Watson or Mariotta, so don't buy the hype unless you like throwing away money is my take.
The second best QB in this draft is probably Kyle Lauletta from Richmond. I didn't see him play this year, but the highlights show some ability and his numbers certainly won't scare teams away. His team did well and he seems to be getting good scouting reports in the run up to the draft, so I'll buy in. Falk and Rudolph are 2 other QBs people talk about but I think they are just system QBs like so many before them, pass.
As for other players I have thoughts on, I am going to predict Nick Chubb will have a better career than Sony Michel, but both will be solid pros after their time at UGA. Conventional wisdom is Michel has more pass catching and blocking saavy over Nick, but I think Nick did a great job on pass protection when he was asked to do it, and he will be a more dominant runner between the tackles as I see it. I think either would be great in Packers uniform, but if I get to pick, it is Nick.
Roquan Smith is going to shine for either the Colts, 49ers or the Raiders it would appear and he will be a beast wherever he goes.
I wish I could say Derwin James will light it up, but in 2017 he simply lacked any explosive speed or instinct like he had in 2015. Maybe he is still recovering from the knee injury, but he should have been better by now. I know FSU did a lousy job of utilizing his full talent this year, but I just think he may be slightly overrated as an All-Pro. Maybe a solid starter, and maybe someone transforms him ala Thomas Davis into a beast of a linebacker, but I just don't feel like he is a can't miss, but maybe more of a probably won't miss prospect.
FSU has no other major talent, just some decent role player defensive linemen who will all probably find jobs in the NFL (Nnadi, Christmas, Sweat), but not as big time starters.
Among the UGA prospects, I see Trenton Thompson being a surprisingly decent DT possibly, and Lorenzo Carter just never blew me away despite his amazing speed and size/weight ratios.
Of the other players I saw in 2017 who maybe will surprise the NFL, Gallup the WR from Colorado State looked good in the 2 games I saw, as did the TE Andrews from Oklahoma, TE Hurst from South Carolina, and the LB Griffin from UCF.
To try and forecast busts, I will list the QBs above, along with WR Ridley from Bama, McFadden from FSU, and any Gator drafted.
Alright best guess time:
CLE-Darnoud
NYG-Chubb
NYJ-Mayfield
CLE-Barkley
DEN trade to BUFF-Allen (Buff trades both 2018 1sts and another pick for this)
IND-R Smith
TB-James (in a reach, but I think if I were Bucs GM I would go Fitzpatrick)
CHIC-Davenport (Since I guess Nelson gone, they either pick Davenport or trade to AZ or MIA so they can get QB)
SF-Ward
Oak-T Edmunds
MIA-Rosen
edit: 04/16/2018 changed to NYG keeping pick, then the trades beginning with DEN.
If Cleveland goes Allen at #1, then this whole thing changes and maybe NYG go Darnoud and the frenzy for QB needy teams drives a trade with DEN or IND to get Rosen. My scenario leaves AZ in the cold to consider Rudolph or Jackson later in the draft.
Regardless, the NYG are the key. We'll know how insane a night it will be once they trade or pick. :-)
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